行业洞察｜面向业余爱好者的无人机市场在萎缩吗？

面向业余爱好者的无人机市场（而后成“业余无人机市场”）在缩小吗？根据某些指标，答案是肯定的。业余无人机市场（非商业用途的休闲类无人机，用于娱乐，如个人拍摄、第一人称视角飞行或竞速）今年出现了萎缩的迹象。

Is the hobby drone market shrinking? By some metrics, it is. The hobby drone market — meaning recreational drones used not for business, but rather for fun reasons like personal photography, FPV flying or racing — has shown some signs of contracting this year.

据德国调研公司无人机行业洞察组织（DII）发表的2022无人机市场报告显示，2022全球无人机市场总值约306亿美元。报告包括了基于无人机行业复合年增长率（CAGR）的市场预测。同时据DII的预测模型，商业方面的复合年增长率到2030年将增长8.3%，整体无人机市场的CAGR则增加7.8%。这意味着业余爱好方面的无人机正在拉低整体CAGR的平均值。

The 2022 global drone market is worth an estimated $30.6 billion, according to analysis from the Drone Market Report 2022 from Drone Industry Insights (DII), a Germany-based research firm. The report includes a market forecast based on the drone industry’s Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR). And while the CAGR on the commercial side of things is set to expand at a rate of 8.3% through 2030, the overall drone market is set to expand by a lesser 7.8%, based on DII’s forecasting model. That means the hobby side of things is dragging down the overall average CAGR. 

这对于依赖业余无人机飞手作为主要收入来源的企业来说，可能是个坏消息。许多无人机公司也承认了这一点，并且正在转向或倾向于将企业运营作为其主要收入来源。最值得一提的是大疆，它凭借其主要针对摄影师的大疆幻影无人机声名鹊起。

That could spell bad news for businesses who rely on hobby drone pilots as their primary source of income. Many drone businesses have acknowledged this, and are pivoting or leaning into enterprise operations as their primary income source. Most notably is DJI, which rose to fame with its DJI Phantom drone, which primarily targeted photographers.

如今，许多大疆产品都以企业为重点，例如其最近推出的DJI Mavic 3 Enterprise基本上采用了现有Mavic 3的外壳和许多内部部件，并赋予其商业级功能，例如56×变焦摄像头，厘米级精度的RTK模块，以及一个可自选的热成像摄像机。总部位于加利福尼亚州的无人机制造商也采取了类似的操作，通过为其以动作运动摄影为重点的Skydio 2无人机进行了改造，以适应企业运营。增强型 Skydio X2 于 2021 年春季开始发货，并增加了专为国防、公共部门和企业客户设计的双色/热传感器等功能。

These days, many DJI products are enterprise focused, such as its recently-launched, DJI Mavic 3 Enterprise essentially takes the shell and many of the internal parts of the existing Mavic 3 and gives it commercial-grade features such as a 56× zoom camera, an RTK module for centimeter-level precision, and even an optional thermal camera. California-based dronemaker has operated similarly, by giving its action sports photography-focused Skydio 2 drone a makeover fit for enterprise operations, too. The enhanced Skydio X2 began shipping in spring 2021 and added features like dual color/thermal sensors that were designed specifically for defense, public sector and enterprise customers.

业余无人机市场萎缩的问题

The problem with the hobby drone market shrinking

也许对业余无人机市场萎缩的预测更令人担忧的是，这对商业方面的长期增长来说也可能不是好兆头。因为，根据DroneAnalyst 2020 年无人机市场部门报告，近一半的企业无人机项目只是出于“个人对无人机的兴趣爱好”。数据显示，在公司内部拥有强大的无人机爱好者渠道通常是公司在工作中使用无人机的催化剂。

Perhaps more concerning about forecasts of the hobby drone market shrinking is that it also might not bode well for long-term growth on the commercial side. That’s because, according to theDroneAnalyst 2020 Drone Market Sector Report, nearly half of enterprise drone programs were founded simply out of “an individual’s interest in drones as a hobby.” Having a strong pipeline of drone hobbyists within a company is often the catalyst for companies to use drones in their work, the data indicates.

更具体地说，46.5%的无人机项目是由最初对无人机感兴趣的人创立的。21.8%的项目在没有正式预算的情况下有机地开始，几乎完全与此一致，他们使用的第一架无人机是员工自掏腰包支付的，这表明员工可能也贡献了消费级无人机的销售额并将其带到公司作为概念证明。至此，更多的用例增长。

More specifically, 46.5% of drone programs were founded by someone who initially had interest in drones as a hobbyist. 21.8% of programs began organically without a formal budget, and almost exactly in line with that, the first drone used was paid for out of the employee’s own pocket, indicating that the employee likely a consumer-grade drone and brought it in to the company as a proof of concept. From there, more use cases grew.

幸运的是，这并不全是坏消息。无人机市场作为一个整体仍将增长。根据DII的预测，从商业和娱乐方面综合来看，到2030年，无人机市场的价值将达到558亿美元。以下是DII对从现在到2030年无人机市场增长的完整预测：

Luckily, it’s not all bad news. The drone market as a whole is still set to grow. When looking at the combined commercial and recreational sides, the drone market will be worth $55.8 billion by the year 2030, based on DII’s forecasts. Here’s a look at Drone Industry Insight’s full forecasts for drone market growth between now and 2030:

DII 上个月发布的《2022 年无人机市场报告》中提供了对该数据更深入研究以及更多类似数据，该报告根据 17 个垂直行业、前 10 个国家/地区市场以及基于地区、单位销售、国家等的其他差异进行了细分。

A deeper dive into that data, and more figures like it, is available in DII’sDrone Market Report 2022, which was released last month and breaks down figures based on 17 industry verticals, the top 10 country markets, as well as other differences based on region, unit sales, country and more. 

虽然预测确实表明业余无人机市场正在萎缩，但对于想要看到休闲无人机市场继续增长的人们仍有希望。对于初学者来说，有很多事情可以改变以打破这些模式。例如，新推出的大疆Avata无人机可能会引发人们对第一人称视角无人机飞行的额外兴趣。由于该无人机相对来说是较新款（于 2022 年 8 月发布），DII 的报告没有考虑其影响。

While the forecasts do indicate that hobby drone market shrinking, there is hope for folks who want to see the recreational side continue to grow. For starters, there are plenty of things could change to disrupt those models. For example, the newly-launchedDJI Avata drone has potentially to spark additional interest in first-person view drone flying. Since that drone is fairly new (it was released in August 2022), its impact was not accounted for in DII’s report.

就其价值而言，无人机行业并没有完全放弃业余无人机。像大疆这样的无人机制造商仍在继续投资为业余无人机社区开发新产品。今年早些时候，大疆发布了大疆Mini 3 Pro，许多消费者和专业消费者认为这是迄今为止最好的摄像无人机。

And for what it’s worth, the drone industry isn’t giving up on hobby drones entirely. Drone makers like DJI still continue to invest in building new products for the hobby drone community. Earlier this year, DJI released itsDJI Mini 3 Pro, which many consumers and prosumers consider to be the best camera drone yet.